Bold claim: plastic pollution could be dramatically cut in half in the next 15 years, but only if reuse and return systems are widely adopted. New, large-scale research suggests that the 66 million tonnes of plastic packaging entering the environment annually could be nearly eliminated by 2040 through these strategies, alongside targeted production reductions and material substitutions.
This comprehensive analysis—the most expansive look yet at the global plastic system—was conducted by the Pew Charitable Trusts with input from experts at Imperial College London and the University of Oxford. It underscores that plastics, once heralded as a cornerstone of modern life, now pose significant risks to public health, economies, and the planet’s future.
If no action is taken, plastic pollution could more than double by 2039–2040, reaching about 280 million metric tonnes per year. That amount is roughly equivalent to a garbage truck full of plastic waste dumped somewhere in the world every second, with packaging accounting for a large share of the rise.
The report, Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025, warns that this trajectory would affect every facet of life—economic stability, health outcomes, and climate resilience—by accelerating land, water, and air pollution, exposing people to toxic substances, and increasing the chances of disease. It also notes higher rates of ingestion and harm to wildlife through entanglement and illness.
Plastic production, derived from fossil fuels, is projected to climb by about 52%—from 450 million tonnes this year to 680 million tonnes in 2040—outpacing waste-management systems that are already stretched thin. The packaging sector is identified as the main driver of this growth, delivering more plastic goods than any other industry in 2025 and expected to dominate further in 2040. Packaging includes items like soft films, bags, bottles, and rigid containers for foods and beverages, vegetables, and other goods.
The single largest source of plastic waste globally remains packaging, which is often used once and discarded, a large portion of which is not recyclable. In 2025, packaging accounted for about 33% of global plastic waste, contributing roughly 66 million tonnes of pollution annually.
Crucially, the study finds that the pollution from packaging could be nearly eradicated with coordinated measures such as deposit-return schemes and reuse programs—where consumers return empty containers or use refillable options at stores and cafes. When combined with bans on certain polymers and a shift to alternative materials, the researchers estimate a potential 97% reduction in plastic pollution within 15 years.
“There is real potential to transform this system and nearly eliminate plastic pollution from packaging,” said Winnie Lau, project director for preventing plastic pollution at Pew.
Two major strategies drive the projected 97% decrease by 2040. The first is widespread reuse and return systems, which could remove about two-thirds of the pollution. The second involves reducing plastic production for packaging and substituting materials such as cardboard, glass, metal, or banning specific polymers.
Beyond environmental damage, everyday contact with plastics—whether through children playing with toys or communities near petrochemical facilities—poses notable health risks. The report notes that plastics contain more than 16,000 intentionally added chemicals, plus numerous contaminants. Research already links many of these substances to hormone disruption, reduced fertility, low birth weights, cognitive and developmental changes in children, diabetes, and elevated cardiovascular and cancer risk factors.
The global plastic system also contributes substantially to greenhouse gas emissions. Projected emissions rise from about 2.7 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2025 to roughly 4.2 GtCO2e in 2040, a 58% increase. If plastic production were a country, its emissions would rank as the third-largest on the planet by 2040, behind only China and the United States.
Yet transformation is within reach. The authors argue that with interventions spanning waste management improvements, production reductions, and robust reuse and return programs, plastic pollution could drop by around 83%, greenhouse gas emissions by about 38%, and health impacts by roughly 54%. Such changes could save governments approximately $19 billion (about £14 billion) annually in future spending on plastic collection and disposal by 2040.
“Hope remains,” remarked Tom Dillon of Pew Charitable Trusts. “The world can reshape the plastic system and resolve the pollution challenge within a generation, but policymakers must prioritize people and the planet.”
