A Bold Warning: Bangladesh's Energy Future at Stake
In a startling revelation, the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has issued a dire warning about Bangladesh's Energy and Power Sector Master Plan (EPSMP), asserting that it could lead the nation down a costly and environmentally detrimental path. This plan, they argue, is a step backward, driven by bureaucratic interests rather than the country's long-term needs.
But here's where it gets controversial...
At a media briefing, CPD's Research Director, Khondaker Golam Moazzem, highlighted the plan's fundamental flaws. He emphasized that renewable energy, a crucial component for a sustainable future, has been sidelined, while domestic coal is being promoted under the guise of "resource optimisation." Moazzem raises a valid question: With an estimated 60,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity capacity planned, who will consume this vast amount of power?
CPD's analysis reveals that approximately half of the proposed capacity would suffice to meet demand by 2040, especially considering Bangladesh's expected future industrial growth, which is likely to remain service-oriented and labour-intensive, with relatively low energy intensity. Overestimating demand, Moazzem warns, could lead to excess capacity and financial strain in the power sector.
And this is the part most people miss...
CPD believes the entire EPSMP formulation process should be halted and deferred until after national elections, allowing a democratically elected government to initiate a more inclusive and fresh planning process. This move is essential to ensure the plan aligns with the nation's true needs and priorities.
The think tank suggests that the draft plan reflects pressure from foreign partners and domestic energy lobbies, particularly regarding the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure. With upcoming economic agreements with Japan and the United States, there are strong indications that energy commitments have influenced the master plan.
In her keynote presentation, CPD's senior research associate, Helen Mashiyat Preoty, emphasized the draft's lack of focus on grid upgradation. She pointed out that the implementation of smart grids has been pushed back to 2040, even though the existing grid cannot accommodate more than 20% variable renewable energy. This delay could hinder the integration of renewable energy sources into the grid.
A Shift Towards Fossil Fuels?
CPD criticizes the plan's renewed focus on fossil fuels, specifically coal and LNG. The draft proposes expanding coal-based power generation capacity from 6.8GW to 12.9GW and prioritizes new LNG terminals and additional floating storage and regasification units. Preoty argues that these investments are costly and undermine long-term energy security.
CPD recommends scrapping plans for new coal-fired power plants, initiating a phased retirement of existing coal capacity, halting new LNG terminal projects, and redirecting investments towards domestic gas exploration. They also call for redefining renewable energy to focus on proven sources like solar and wind, prioritizing high-potential regions such as Chattogram, and integrating regional renewable energy trade, including cross-border imports from Nepal and Bhutan, which the draft largely ignores.
So, what do you think? Is Bangladesh's energy future at risk of being locked into costly fossil fuel infrastructure? Should the EPSMP be revised to prioritize renewable energy and long-term sustainability? We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments!
